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Management is nonetheless aggressively pursuing unrealistic growth targets even as competitors flood the discount retail market and threaten its improbable margins.
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We believe that DOL will continue to miss lofty investor expectations, and that its premium valuation will continue to be pressured.
Dollarama sells a variety of low-priced products, mostly sourced directly from China. Faced with years of negative average traffic growth and an increasingly saturated market, Dollarama is driving comparable store sales growth by selling higher-priced items.
BIG undertook a similar strategy biodiesel business plan presentation the s, but reversed course after admitting its failure. Dollarama cited a store target at the time of its IPO inwhen it had just stores.
Management has since revised this number upwards multiple times: Our analysis shows that this target is unrealistic, and that the market is already bordering on oversaturation. The Rossy family launched Dollarama from its legacy retail chain in and owns significant real estate assets that are employed by the enterprise.
We question whether a thorough and arms-length search was conducted to fill this position. As part of a deal struck inDollarama supplies goods at an undisclosed profit margin to Central American discount retailer Dollar City in exchange for an option to acquire the chain in We are concerned that Dollar City could be overpaying its vendors to lessen the financial burden on Dollarama.
The current CFO owns no shares and regularly liquidates options. Dollarama claims to hedge currencies only to lock in consistent prices in CAD on which its customers can rely.
However, in practice, the Company adjusts prices to match non-hedged competitors, leaving us to wonder why it hedges at all. Much of the recent hedge benefit appears to have reversed, but gross margins ex-hedges conveniently rose by just enough over the last two years to maintain steady profitability.
While accounting rules may give sufficient leeway to permit this difference, we question why lease term assumptions should differ for these two capital accounts. Earnings quality suffers notwithstanding. We also worry about the state of the balance sheet should the economic environment turn, or should the business decline more rapidly.
Such lofty multiples are inappropriate for a dollar store with serious near-to-medium-term business risks.Halloween can be Boo-tiful for Business! Andrew Berg. October 22nd Bring in extra traffic with some trick-or-treat action Small business owners in many communities offer downtown trick or .
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